Yearly breast cancer cases projected to reach over 3.5 million worldwide by 2050

In In The News by Barbara Jacoby

By: Andrew (Drew) Rhoades

From: healio.com

Key takeaways:

  • There were about 2.3 million new breast cancer cases and 764,000 resulting deaths worldwide in 2023.
  • Risk factors like high red meat intake significantly contribute to healthy years lost due to breast cancer.

Annual breast cancer cases are estimated to rise by a third worldwide from 2023 to 2050, according to new research published in The Lancet Oncology.

Deaths from breast cancer are also projected to increase by 44% during that time.

“Breast cancer continues to take a profound toll on women’s lives and communities,” lead study author Kayleigh Bhangdia, MS, a research scientist at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), University of Washington, Seattle, said in a press release. “While those in high-income countries typically benefit from screening and more timely diagnosis and comprehensive treatment strategies, the mounting burden of breast cancer is shifting to low- and lower middle-income countries where individuals often face later-stage diagnosis, more limited access to quality care and higher death rates that are threatening to eclipse progress in women’s health.”

Breast cancer remains the most common cancer among women, according to the American Cancer Society, with around one in eight getting the cancer in their lifetime.

In the analysis, Bhangdia and colleagues captured breast cancer trends and burden from 1990 to 2023 across 204 countries — along with projections up to 2050 — using data from population-based cancer registries, vital registration systems and interviews with family members or caregivers of women who have died of breast cancer, according to the release.

The researchers reported that an estimated 2.3 million [95% uncertainty interval (UI), 2.01-2.61] new breast cancers were diagnosed globally in 2023, with 73% of cases occurring in high- or upper-middle-income countries.

There were 764,000 resulting deaths (95% UI, 672,000-854,000) worldwide during that year.

From 1990 to 2023, the number of years of healthy life lost due to breast cancer illness and death — measured as disability-adjusted life-years, or DALYs — globally increased from 11.7 million to 24.1 million.

Women in low- and lower-middle-income countries account for over 45% of DALYs globally despite only contributing to 27% of new breast cancer cases yearly, the release said.

Several risk factors, including tobacco use, high red meat intake, high BMI, high alcohol use, low physical activity and high fasting plasma glucose, contributed to 28.3% (95% UI, 16.6%-38.9%) of breast cancer DALYs in 2023.

But worldwide breast cancer burden tied to high alcohol use (–47%) and tobacco use (–28%) declined from 1990 to 2023.

“There are tremendous opportunities to alter the trajectory of breast cancer risk for the next generation,” Marie Ng, PhD, a study co-author and an affiliate associate professor at IHME, said in the release. “Targeting known risk factors through public health policies and making healthier choices more accessible, while working with individuals to take action to reduce obesity and high blood sugar, is crucial to halting the rise in breast cancers worldwide.”

The incidence rate of breast cancer was 160.7 per 100,000 among women aged 55 years or older in 2023, over three times higher vs. women aged 20 to 54 years (50.4 per 100,000).

However, the rates of new cases among women aged 20 to 54 years rose by 29% from 1990 to 2023, the release said, “with rates in older women not changing substantially —these differences may reflect changing age patterns as well as changes in risk factors, which vary between pre- and postmenopausal women.”

Bhangdia and colleagues reported that annual breast cancer cases worldwide are projected to reach 3.56 million (95% UI, 2.29-4.83) by 2050, with 1.37 million (95% UI, 0.841-2.02) resulting deaths.

Ultimately, “collaborative efforts are needed to ensure well-functioning health systems capable of early diagnosis and comprehensive treatment of breast cancer in all countries,” Lisa M. Force, MD, MPH, a study co-author and assistant professor at IHME, said in the release. “Reducing the cost of breast cancer therapies and ensuring that universal health coverage includes breast cancer care essentials would also be valuable in protecting patients from catastrophic costs and improving outcomes.”

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